Forecast of 2030’s and 2040’s electricity consumption

Electricity consumption profiles per market node are an essential input to power market models. Variation in demand between scenarios provide market model outputs with valuable information on possible power flows within Europe.

The components that make up an electricity demand forecast include the following

• Economic Growth Rates

• Impact of energy efficiency measures

• New industrial demand (such as data centre demand)

• Decarbonisation Policies

  • The impact of electrification of the transport

  • The impact of electrification of the heating sectors

The base market node estimates for annual load (TWh) and annual consumption peak (GW) for 2030, are collected from TSOs.

TSO’s provide the following data for 2030:

• normal/average annual load (TWh) and annual consumption peak (GW)

• the number of Electric Vehicles

• the number of electric and hybrid heat pumps

• new industrial demand (TWh).

The scenario hourly demand profiles are created using a load profile building tool, which builds node by node load profiles for 34 climate years.

Table 13: Electricity consumption scenario assumptions

As the market model input data does not distinguish between residential and industrial demand the above table has been translated to:

Table 14: Aggregated electricity consumption scenario assumptions