Stakeholder process, feedback and how this shaped the scenarios

External stakeholders representing the gas and electricity sectors, consumer and environmental NGOs, regulators and Members States were key in building an ambitious, yet technically sound, set of scenarios.

A new process was set up by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG to work jointly with stakeholders through interactive workshops, webinars and web-consultations. Dozens of stakeholders provided input to formulate, with the ENTSOs, the new scenarios storylines for 2030 and 2040.

As a result, the ENTSOs scenarios uniquely represent generally accepted, yet highly ambitious, views of what the future could look like, rather than a view of the future desired or promoted by any organisation. They will allow the testing of Europe’s future energy infrastructures under varied and stressing situations.

The development process7 for these storylines followed the steps below:

  1. First draft of five storylines for potential relevant futures for the electricity and gas system in Europe developed by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG

Figure 18: The draft storylines for scenario building

  1. Public consultation of storylines and request for other relevant scenarios: “Joint ENTSO-E and ENTSOG consultation: Build the Europe’s future scenarios” (May 12th to June 12th 2016)

– 75 suggestions for new scenarios were proposed by stakeholders. In most cases, they were very close in content to one of the five draft scenarios, with the exception of a small number of outliers.

  1. Two public workshops on future scenarios. (June 2nd 2016 and July 5th 2016)

– During and shortly after the consultation two workshops were held with stakeholders [3]: the first one brought together the electricity and gas stakeholders interested in TYNDP, the second was dedicated to Member States’ and National Regulators’ representatives. During these workshops, the content of the draft storylines was discussed and new alternative scenarios were created which were also merged into the draft storylines. In addition, stakeholders were invited to vote for the three storylines that should be developed further for TYNDP 2018. The ranking of the storylines, in each workshop, is shown in Figure 19.

Figure 19: Voting per scenario from stakeholders, to determine which should be developed further during stakeholder workshops.

  1. Based on public workshops and consultation: the scenarios were reduced to three futures and adjustments made to the initial storylines

  2. Based on stakeholders’ input, ENTSOs decided to develop Distributed Generation, Sustainable Transition and Global Climate Action. Behind Targets was excluded despite being ranked third in the second workshop. It was not considered as relevant in view of assessing the electricity and gas networks against future challenges.

  1. Presentation of selected storylines and request for input to scenario quantification. Webinar October 10th 2016

  2. Based on the input from stakeholders, the three scenarios were developed further by describing in more detail a large number of indicators (presented in Figure 3: Overview of the guiding parameters for the scenarios). The final scenario storylines were presented during a webinar on 10th October 2016, during which stakeholders were also given the opportunity to give input to ranges of values which would be used during the scenario quantification process.

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