Electric Vehicles

The electric vehicle numbers for the scenario obtained as follows

  • Sustainable Transition 2030 are collected from the TSO estimations.

  • EUCO 2030 is based figures provided by DG Energy

  • All of the other scenarios are based on the projections from the IEA EV-Outlook 2016.

The following table maps the IEA EV outlook to the 2030 and 2040 scenarios.

Scenario Growth in EV IEA EV-Outlook numbers
Sustainable Transition (2040) Moderate 2040 Low
Global Climate Action (2040) High 2040 Mod
Distributed Generation (2030 & 2040) Very High Bottom 2030 and 2040 Highup

Table 17: Electric vehicle scenario alignment with IEA EV-Outlook

For Sustainable Transition 2040 the EV forecast is based on the reported numbers for 2030 and a projection of the growth after 2030 from IEA-Low.

For Distributed Generation (2030 / 2040) and Global Climate Action 2040 the values are set by IEA numbers, given that the TSO reported EV market share from Sustainable Transition 2030 is not higher than this.

In thousands of EVs Sustainable Transition Distributed Generation Global Climate Action
2030 2040 2030
Albania 24.9 57.4 29.1
Austria 537.1 1009.1 629.5
Belgium 390.9 900.8 456.9
Bosnia 49.8 114.8 58.2
Bulgaria 192.0 442.4 232.8
Croatia 20.0 46.1 145.9
Czech Republic 161.3 371.7 611.2
Denmark 86.6 131.5 198.3
Denmark 129.9 197.3 297.5
Estonia 40.0 92.2 46.7
Finland 250.0 576.1 269.4
France 3694.0 6146.8 6349.1
FYR of Macedonia 21.8 50.2 70.4
GB Northern Ireland 92.6 163.4 172.8
Germany 2640.0 5647.6 5400.0
Great Britain 4706.1 8309.9 4759.3
Greece 423.3 975.4 494.7
Hungary 175.0 403.3 246.0
Ireland 168.0 296.6 313.6
Italy 470.7 1180.6 686.7
Italy 811.3 2034.9 1183.7
Italy 2287.3 5737.0 3337.2
Italy 355.8 892.3 519.1
Italy 95.6 239.9 139.5
Italy 259.0 649.6 377.8
Latvia 24.0 55.3 93.1
Lithuania 34.0 78.3 117.8
Luxembourg 46.0 98.4 49.7
Norway 129.0 204.7 160.8
Norway 75.0 119.0 93.5
Norway 660.0 1047.4 822.6
Poland 1900.0 4378.3 0.0
Portugal 84.5 144.1 694.8
Romania 57.0 131.3 552.9
Serbia 110.0 253.5 154.6
Slovak Republic 152.4 351.2 238.9
Slovenia 149.3 344.1 209.9
Spain 1000.0 1325.0 2425.0
Sweden 16.7 28.5 24.8
Sweden 34.0 58.1 50.6
Sweden 323.2 552.1 481.5
Sweden 106.8 182.5 159.2
Switzerland 814.6 1877.1 1145.2
The Netherlands 736.1 1383.0 1013.1
Montenegro 1204.8 2776.3 1408.0

Table 18: Number of electric vehicles (1000’s)

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