Demand

Introduction

This chapter provides the methodology and processes used to collect and develop the total gas demand for the scenarios to be used for TYNDP

1. Total gas demand is made up of Final Gas Demand (defined as Residential & Commercial, Industrial and Transport sectors) and Gas Demand for Power Generation.

Based on decades of experience, gas TSOs have developed expertise in terms of gas demand. ENTSOG builds on this expertise by collecting at national level data from its TSO end-user demand data for the different story lines. This is the source of data for final gas demand within the TYNDP 2018 scenarios.

Gas demand for power generation is the result of the ENTSO-E modelling process, with a conversion from the electricity generation required by the optimal dispatch output into the fuel input required for this.

Bottom Up Data Collection

Demand data is submitted from TSOs in accordance with the demand scenario storylines, parameters and prices, using national expertise to provide country level specifics (which are provided as part of this annex). A data collection questionnaire is provided, which covers all scenarios as well as any gas demand as a result of newly gasified areas enabled by future projects where applicable, which is classified as gasification demand.

Values are provided for all years up to 2040 for the yearly average volume, seasonal variation as well as the high demand cases of the peak day (1-day Design Case, DC) and the 2-week high demand case (14-day Uniform Risk, 2W) average daily demand. Seasonal and high demand situations are covered in more detail in section Error! Reference source not found..

Table 24: ENTSOG scenario types

Scenarios

In instances where TSO input focused on one (or two) specific scenarios, data was complemented in consultation with the relevant TSO in order to provide a complete dataset. In the instance where only one scenario was provided, this was used as the ‘Sustainable Transition’ scenario, with the Distributed Generation and Global Climate Action scenarios generated from the ‘Green Revolution’ data from TYNDP 2017. Although driven by different factors, this typically saw a reducing final gas demand which would likely result from the increase in electric or hybrid heat pumps and pathways for electric and gas vehicles as considered in these scenarios’ story lines.

If no ‘Best Estimate’ data was provided, then this was substituted with data from ‘Sustainable Transition’ up to 2025. This was possible as information for all scenarios was collected across the time horizon, with Sustainable Transition the storyline with the least change from current trends.

More details on how the national methodology to derive demand data has been can be found as part of the Gas Country Specifics included in the appendix section 0.

Final Demand - Sectoral

TSOs were asked to provide sectoral split of gas demand. For countries where not provided by the TSO, this has been determined through the use of the sectoral demand methodology. This takes publically available data sources of historic demand and applies trends based on the storyline parameters for Residential & Commercial, Industrial and transport sectors.

Industrial demand is viewed as stable in both Sustainable Transition and Global Climate Action, with energy efficiency offset by increases in output. Distributed Generation see a reduction of industrial demand, with a linear progression of 1% p.a. applied.

CCS for industrial gas demand is defined as low growth for both Sustainable Transition and Global Climate Action, and considered not significant for Distributed Generation. It is determined that heavy industry with high load hours may make CCS commercially viable in these scenarios, whereas in power generation this would likely not be the case. Data and demonstration projects currently remain limited, so it is assumed that there will be no CCS applied to industrial demand in 2030 for all scenarios. The EC Roadmap to 2050 has been referenced stating that by 2030 nearly 10% of all emissions could be captured by CCS, which increases to over 40% by 2040. Given the low to not significant potential described by the scenarios, but also noting the increased carbon prices, CCS has been applied to 20% of industrial gas demands in Sustainable Transition 2040 and Global Climate Action 2040 and 15% in Distributed Generation 2040.

Transport demand development was based on publically available data from the NGVA (Natural Gas Vehicle Association), using historic NGV penetration in the EU28 from 2011 to 2016 and country level data on vehicles and filling stations. Growth rates have varied between 3% and 10%, which an average of 5.5% over these years. Recent developments have seen greater market share increases in the heavy good vehicle category but slower overall market increase.

Based on this data, Distributed Generation low growth was set at 2% p.a, Sustainable Transition high growth at 4.5% p.a and Global Climate Action very high growth at 8% p.a. If no historic data for natural gas vehicle use is available for a country then development is considered at 0% regardless of the scenario growth level.

Residential & Commercial was calculated as the balancing factor for final demand after applying transport and industrial assumptions, with reductions varying on a country level basis assumed to be driven by energy efficiency and introduction of heat pumps. In instances where increases were seen, this should be seen as related to fuel switching from more polluting energy sources.

Although the final demand development follows the expected trends at a EU28+ level, there are significant differences between the evolutions of demand at country level, reflective of current and future energy mixes. For more information on the assumptions behind the country level evolution of demand, please refer to the Gas Country Specifics included in the appendix section 0.