Gas sector methodology elements

Based on decades of experience gas TSOs have developed expertise in terms of gas demand – in particular its seasonal pattern or how it behaves in peak situations - and in terms of indigenous production. While those will undergo significant changes, ENTSOG builds on this expertise by collecting at national level data from its TSO end-user demand data for the different story lines, as well as indigenous production data for both conventional and green gases. More information on the methodology retained at national level by the TSOs is available as part of the Country Specifics section of the Annex report.

ENTSOG have requested further sectoral demand data from TSOs during this scenario development process. This combined with top-down methodologies intends to provide stakeholders with a more detailed view of the sectoral development of gas demand in the storylines.

In terms of gas demand for power generation, in the previous TYNDP edition ENTSO-E TYNDP data had been used to flex thermal generation between coal and gas within a ‘Thermal Gap’ in line with the retained scenarios. Thanks to the new degree of collaboration between the ENTSOs as well as gas and electricity TSO this is now directly linked to the output of the ENTSO-E modelling process.

When it comes to supplies, a variety of supply mixes could be experienced, independently from the scenario story lines. They will depend both on the potential of each supply source and on market rationale favouring a supply source over another one. For the supply potentials referring to extra-EU sources ENTSOG has no specific expertise and therefore relies on publicly available information, as presented later in this report. Compared to last edition, TYNDP 2018 will see the LNG supply potential treated as a multi-source supply. For each scenario different supply mixes will be assessed as part of the TYNDP assessment.

In regards to indigenous production, the scenarios distinguish between conventional gas and renewable gases, and also for the later between biomethane and gas produced from power-to-gas technology. Indeed a specific approach has been developed for the first time on power-to-gas in cooperation with ENTSO-E.