Fuel prices that remain constant over all the scenarios
Nuclear price:
The nuclear fuel price is assumed constant over the whole time horizon and all scenarios.
This price includes the following components:
U~3~O~8~ price
Conversion price
Enrichment price
Fuel fabrication
The final nuclear fuel price is calculated by summing the four components mentioned. A number of expert sources are referenced in the chart below, the final price for nuclear is determined by taking an average of the costs. Therefore the market models are using a price of 0.47 €/GJ for the nuclear fuel.
Figure 1: Nuclear price
The nuclear fuel price is set by the world demand and supply and is affected in a very limited way by the drivers identified in the storylines, therefore the nuclear fuel price is assumed to be the same for all the scenarios, including the EUCO scenario.
The proposal for TYNDP 2018 is to use the same price across all scenarios set at 0.47 €/GJ.
Lignite price
The cost of extraction and the calorific value of the lignite drive the prices. The following chart presents lignite prices from various references. For TYNDP 2018 an average lignite price of 1.1 €/GJ is calculated from the data identified. Since lignite is consumed locally (due to its low calorific value), it can be considered as stable for the future.
Figure 2: Lignite price
The proposal for TYNDP 2018 is to keep the same price of 1.1 €/GJ for all the countries and time horizons.
Exception:
The lignite price for the EUCO scenario was provided by DG Energy the cost provided was 2.3 €/GJ.
Oil shale price
Oil shale is only present in Estonia at the moment. The oil shale price is set to 2.3 €/GJ and is constant for all scenarios.
The proposal for TYNDP 2018 is to use the same price as for the TYNDP 2016 of 2.3 €/GJ.