Country Specifics
Based on decades of experience gas TSOs have developed expertise in terms of gas demand and indigenous production. ENTSOG builds on this expertise by collecting at national level data from its TSO end-user demand data for the different story lines, as well as indigenous production data – both for conventional and green gases.
The Country Specifics information provides insight into the methods and tools used to develop the data. It can also be where national level differences that exist from the EU level parameters set by the storylines can be highlighted.
- AT (Austria)
Methodology
Gas Connect Austria and the tools used when delivering the supply and demand data have been the following:
Main source in this context are the data provided by our NRA E-Control Austria and the official Austrian natural gas statistics. The Austrian natural gas statistics contain market information but also cover the energy balance. The monthly natural gas balance is based on the first and second clearing for demand and supply. To this hourly data, the main balance items are added on a monthly basis. This includes e.g. physical imports and exports, production (extraction), injection into and the withdrawal from storage facilities, injection of biogas and own use for production, storage and transport. The natural gas statistics are therefore commodity balances based on physical flows (source: E-Control Austria)
Data is based on information published by E-Control Austria in the form of its most recent statistics These reflect the energy efficiency and CO2 targets and scenarios to the extent they are implemented and impacting the energy mix in Austria as well.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand provided by TSO.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- BA (Bosnia Herzegovina)
Sustainable Transition
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- BE (Belgium)
Methodology
General
The values for final demand and power generation are in line with the storyline of the three ENTSOG scenario’s and are compatible with the Fluxys Belgium Network Development Plan demand scenarios covering the period 2017-2026.
Residential & Commercial
The projected values for the residential and commercial sector are based on a global study regarding the evolution of the residential average and peak gas demand in the different regions of Belgium.
Power generation
The major driver for change in the Belgian power generation sector, regardless of the scenario, is an important transition phase with the announced closure of all Belgian nuclear power plants. The first reactors are planned to close as of Q3 2022 and by the end of 2025 all of the 6 GW nuclear power plants are planned to be permanently closed.
Given that the power usage is expected to remain stable, these closures will have to be compensated through a combination of additional renewable power, additional imports of excess electricity production in the neighbouring countries and gas-fired power production. Renewables are known for their intermittent character. The availability of excess electricity production in the neighbouring countries is also highly uncertain given it is based on foreign policies putting more emphasis on intermittent renewables while at the same time closing down coal and nuclear fired power plants. As a result gas-fired power generation is believed to continue to play an important role in the security of supply of Belgium. This has been reflected in the peak demand scenarios for power generation submitted by Fluxys Belgium.
Sustainable Transition
Residential & Commercial
A small reduction of the residual and commercial demand is expected, especially for the annual volumes. The main key drivers are an increase in the efficiency of the installed base of heating appliances (mainly condensing boilers replacing non-condensing boilers), an uptake of hybrid heat pump (post-2020) which drives annual gas demand down but maintains the peak demand, and the application of building regulations for new built dwellings.
No changes have been taken into account after 2030 because of the limited visibility on longer term evolutions.
Industry
No significant evolution is expected based on the forecast of feedstock growth and the prospected evolution for heating applications.
No changes have been taken into account after 2030 because of the limited visibility on longer term evolutions.
Power Plants
In the Sustainable Transition storyline, the nuclear power production in Belgium is expected to be mainly replaced by gas-fired power generation. Renewable power production mostly from wind and solar is expected to grow continuously, but will not be able to fully compensate the phase-out of the nuclear power production in Belgium.
Global Climate Action
Residential & Commercial
A significant decrease is expected especially due to a higher penetration of electrical heat pumps.
Industry
No significant difference is expected compared to the Sustainable Transition scenario storyline, with the electrification of heating application and a growing feedstock gas demand.
Power Plants
Compared to the Sustainable Transition storyline, more emphasis is laid on the development of renewables and demand response management to compensate the loss of nuclear power in Belgium. However gas-fired power generation continues to play a vital role to ensure the security of supply in Belgium, albeit with reducing running hours due to the increase in renewables.
Distributed Generation
Residential & Commercial
A decrease is expected due to a higher utilization of hybrid (and electrical) heat pumps. On the other hand, almost no effect is expected on peak values with gas consumption needed for the hybrid heat pumps at low temperatures. An accelerated cost reduction in fuel cells and micro CHPs could also help to slow the rate of reduction in gas demand compared to the Global Climate Action scenario storyline.
Industry
A small decrease is expected compared to the Sustainable Transition scenario due to an increased electrification of process heating.
Power Plants
Emphasis is laid on renewables, demand response and local power production in the Distributed Generation storyline. Gas-fired power generation capacity remains important for security of supply, but running hours will reduce over time due to increasing renewables and competition from demand response.
- BG (Bulgaria)
Methodology
Bulgartransgaz EAD final demand scenario has been developed on the basis of a macroeconomic model showing the dependence of gas consumption in the country on the main macroeconomic indicators and a comparative analysis of the gas market in both the EU and Bulgaria, and the expected increased consumption, as a result of the joining of new users and expanding the production capacities of the existing ones.
The relationship between the final and primary energy consumption (FEC and PEC) and the GDP growth for past periods have been analysed as well.
The main assumptions made based on an analysis of the past ten-year period, a comparative EU gas market analysis and the objectives of the Energy Strategy of Bulgaria as follows:
– Sustainable economic growth of GDP - between 2 and 3% annually;
– FEC/PEC ratio reaches up to and above 60% in 2024;
– The share of natural gas in PEC in 2025 reaches 19%, compared to 14% in 2015.
Demand scenario is consistent with Bulgartransgaz’s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2017-2026 published in April 2017.
Sustainable Transition
Bulgartransgaz EAD submitted inputs for the Sustainable Transition Scenario. Only one base scenario is developed in Bulgaria at national level. It resembles Sustainable Transition and it is characterized with a demand increase.
Power generation
Demand for power generation data is both for heat and electricity generation. The forecast is based on the same assumptions as the final demand.
The primary gas consumption in Bulgaria includes chiefly combined heat and electricity generation (thermal power stations, plants and co-generation in some industrial companies) thus it is therefore impossible to make a clear distinction between the gas, used exclusively for power generation.
Production
In the following two years the domestic production is expected to remain at the levels of about 75 – 80 mcm as a result of the partial depletion of the existing fields in the country.
The forecast for domestic production growth after 2019 is based on the intensive study works of the local natural gas deposits and granted concessions for development of the deposits on the territory of the country both onshore and in the Black Sea shelf.
Production data is consistent with Bulgartransgaz’s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2017-2026 published in April 2017.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- CH (Switzerland)
Methodology
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Global Climate Action
The final gas demand in Switzerland is mainly driven by temperature since a big part of the demand (41%) is for heating purposes in the residential sector (source: “Gas in Zahlen 2016” by VSG the Swiss Gas Association). Since the temperature of next year cannot be forecasted the best estimate for the demand in the actual year is the demand of the previous year.
The Global Climate Action-scenario assumes a reduction of gas demand in the residential sector since it assumes high growth of electric and hybrid heat pumps and of energy efficiency. The scenario foresees also high growth of the demand for gas vehicles.
The residential sector is the main source for demand in Switzerland, a reduction of that demand would not be compensated by the growth in the mobility/transport sector equalling a slight reduction of the total demand under this scenario - this a TSO estimation since there is no study of an independent or public institution which forecasted the future gas demand under the conditions of the ENSTOG-scenarios. There is a study by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE “Die Energieperspektiven für die Schweiz bis 2050” but the scenarios are defined differently. However, according to that study the natural gas demand is decreasing in all chosen scenarios which are called “weiter wie bisher” (further with the same energy political measures which are in place now), “neue Energiepolitik” (with political measures which are internationally coordinated and with the goal of a 20% reduction of CO2-emissions), and “politische Massnahmen” (with even more tightened political measures as more encouragement in energy efficiency in buidings etc.)
Sustainable Transition
The Sustainable Transition-scenario assumes a slight reduction of gas demand in the residential sector since it assumes moderate growth of electric and hybrid heat pumps and of energy efficiency. The scenario foresees also a very high growth of the demand for gas vehicles.
In this scenario the reduction of the demand in the residential sector could be compensated by the very high growth in the mobility/transport sector.
Distributed Generation
The Distributed Generation-scenario assumes a reduction of gas demand in the residential sector since it assumes a very high growth of electric and hybrid heat pumps and of energy efficiency. The scenario foresees only a low growth of the demand for gas vehicles. Furthermore, the gas demand in the industry sector is assumed to decrease (which is not the case in the other scenarios).
In this scenario the reduction of the total demand is even higher than in the Global Climate Action-scenario.
- CY (Cyprus)
Methodology
No data for Cyprus was submitted during the data collection. Data reflects TYNDP 2017 information.
No further comments have been reported. Gas demand relates to gasification.
- CZ (Czech Republic)
Methodology
The TSO submitted the inputs for the different scenarios.
Demand is based on predictions from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.). The predictions are updated every year in November and contain three scenarios, which are similar to TYNDP18 scenarios below.
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Global Climate action scenario is similar to Central scenario from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Residential & Commercial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Industrial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Transport
Is similar to CNG/LNG consumption prediction from Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Non-network
Not included in our calculations.
Power generation
The forecast is based on real connection requests for the power plants and on predictions from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Production
Production prediction is based on sources assumptions.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Sustainable transition scenario is similar to Conceptual scenario from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Residential & Commercial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Industrial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Transport
Is similar to CNG/LNG consumption prediction from Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Non-network
Not included in our calculations
Power generation
The forecast is based on real connection requests for the power plants and on predictions from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Production
Production prediction is based on sources assumptions.
Distributed Generation
Final demand
Distributed generation scenario is similar to Decentral scenario from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Residential & Commercial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Industrial
Demand distribution in calculated scenarios is similar to Entsog scenarios.
Transport
Is similar to CNG/LNG consumption prediction from Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Non-network
Not included in our calculations
Power generation
The forecast is based on real connection requests for the power plants and on predictions from the Czech electricity and gas market operator (OTE, a.s.).
Production
Production prediction is based on sources assumptions.
- DE (Germany)
Final demand
The final energy demand scenarios for the years 2017 to 2025 are based on the scenario framework of the German NDP 2016.
The final energy demand scenarios for the years 2026 to 2035 are based on the target scenario (“Zielszenario”) of the public study “Energy Reference Forecast” for the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology of June 2014.
The peak day values for the years 2017 to 2025 are derived from the yearly values by applying load factors for the different consumption sectors as determined in a study of the German TSOs and DSOs and published in the German NDP 2015. The peak day values for the years 2026 to 2035 are kept constant at the level of the year 2025.
The 2-week cold spell values for the final gas demand are determined with the help of a temperature-based linear interpolation between the peak day and yearly values.
Power generation
The forecast of the gas consumption in the power sector is based on data provided by ENTSO-E for the different scenarios, namely the annual power generation and the installed capacities of gas fired power plants, splitted by type of power plant.
The gas demand for power generation is calculated with the help of average degree of efficiency for every type of power plant (provided by ENTSOG) including an additional factor for adding the gas demand for operating power of the respective power plant. Since ENTSO-E data are only available for selected years the gas consumption for the intermediate years have been derived by means of interpolation. The average demand then has been calculated by dividing the annual gas demand by 365.
The peak demand has been derived by using the installed electric capacities for every type power plant and typical load factors of German gas power plants based on hourly TSO data. The gas demand is then calculated by using the factors for average efficiency and own consumption as described above. Since ENTSO-E data are only available for selected years the installed capacities for the intermediate years have been derived by means of interpolation.
The two week gas cold spell demand has been derived by using a linear regression between peak day and average day and the respective temperature of the two week case.
For each scenario, the starting values for the year 2018 are derived from data collected by the German TSO for the upcoming national Network Development Plan.
Global Climate Action
The development of the final demand is similar to the development in the scenario Distributed Generation except for the sectors industry and transportation. In line with the description of this scenario, the industry demand for the years 2027 to 2035 is assumed as staying on the level of the industry demand of the year 2026. In line with the description of this scenario, a high growth of the gas demand for transportation is assumed.
The development of power generation was derived according to the methodology described in the methodology section above.
Sustainable Transition
The development of final demand and power generation was derived according to the methodology described in the methodology section above. In line with the description of this scenario, a very high growth of the gas demand for transportation is assumed.
Distributed Generation
Compared to the scenario Sustainable Transition, a further reduction is assumed so that final demand for the years 2025 to 2040 is approximately 90% of the respective values for the scenario Sustainable Transition. In line with the description of this scenario, a low growth of the gas demand for transportation is assumed.
The development of power generation was derived according to the methodology described in the methodology section above.
- DK (Denmark)
Methodology
*The data provided for Denmark for the three TYNDP scenarios is to match the ENTSO scenarios to similar scenarios developed by Energinet during
- The scenarios are presented at the following webpage:*
https://www.energinet.dk/Analyse-og-Forskning/Analyser/RS-Analyse-Energiscenarier-for-2030
Direct link to English summary:
The Energinet scenarios from 2016 are based on ENTSO-E TYNDP16 visions. That they are based on means that the ENTSO-E visions have been supplemented with information about developments outside the electricity sector. Mainly gas, transport, heating and industry in Denmark only. Additionally any new trends and developments have been captured in the new scenarios.
Generally Energinet is not a strong supporter of bottom up scenarios. The risk of having inconsistent scenarios is considered too large. Specifically for a small country with strong electricity and gas interconnectors to neighbouring countries the development in the country is very dependent on developments in other regions in Europe.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Global Climate Action
Global Climate Action – has many similarities with Green Europe and is used as such.
Green Europe describes a state with a strong joint RES development in Europe. This means reduction of gas for heating purpose (replaced with heat pumps), a strong development of RE electricity production (especially off shore wind).
For the gas system there are large amounts of biomethane and even growing use of power 2 gas. Gas is used for transportation in ships and trucks where battery technology have too little capacity to be useful. Overall the gas demand is declining.
Sustainable Transition
Sustainable transition – is very much in line with Energinet’s best guess assumptions called “Energinet's analysis assumptions”. The data collection for TYNDP 18 is based on the 2016 numbers: https://www.energinet.dk/Analyse-og-Forskning/Analyseforudsaetninger/Analyseforudsaetninger-2016
The current political climate favours very much an economically sustainable development towards the 2030 targets.
Distributed Generation
Distributed generation – has many similarities with the “Green Nations” scenario. Development of solar and batteries are very strong in the scenario and the scenarios is optimised to utilise local resources rather than international.
- EE (Estonia)
Global Climate Action
Final demand
The demand data is partly based on a study and partly based on TSO’s own assumptions. The study was about long-term gas consumption forecast in Estonia and it was conducted by consultants from university. The main decrease of demand arises from the switch from gaseous fuels to other alternative fuels in the heating sector.
Power generation
No new gas fired power stations are foreseen for the future.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
The demand data is partly based on a study and partly based on TSO’s own assumptions. The study was about long-term gas consumption forecast in Estonia and it was conducted by consultants from university. In this scenario it is assumed that the switch to other alternative fuels in the heating sector is not as big as in the other two scenarios.
Power generation
No new gas fired power stations are foreseen for the future.
Distributed Generation
Final demand
The demand data is partly based on a study and partly based on TSO’s own assumptions. The study was about long-term gas consumption forecast in Estonia and it was conducted by consultants from university. The main decrease of demand arises from the switch from gaseous fuels to other alternative fuels in the heating sector.
Power generation
No new gas fired power stations are foreseen for the future.
- ES (Spain)
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Residential & Commercial: It has been considered a slightly lower growth of new residential customers than the current trend (+80.000 customers per year). The R&C gas demand decreases due to the efficiency effect (aligned with the PRIMES scenario).
Industrial: The efficiency effect is similar than in the EUCO 2030 scenario. An increasing GDP and new industrial customers induce a growth of the Industrial consumption since these effects are greater than the efficiency.
Non-network: Stable consumption
Power generation
Growth of wind and solar installed power and dismantling of the coal accordingly with the EUCO 2030 scenario. This growth of renewable generation induces increasing energy exports. The increasing coal and CO2 prices from the WEO, the increasing energy exports and the dismantling of the coal mean a growth of the power generation with gas.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Residential & Commercial: It has been considered a growth of new residential customers accordingly with the current tendency (+100.000 customers per year). Although the gas consumption per customer decreases because of the efficiency effect, this growth of customers and the increasing GDP promote an increasing tendency of the gas demand.
Industrial: The effect of the efficiency is lower than in the EUCO 2030 scenario. An increasing GDP and new industrial customers induce a growth of the Industrial consumption since these effects are greater than the efficiency.
Non-network: Stable consumption
Power generation
Growth of wind and solar installed power and dismantling of the coal slower than in the EUCO 2030 scenario. This growth of renewable generation induces increasing energy exports and the increasing GDP promote an increasing power demand. The result is a growth of the power generation with gas.
Distributed Generation
Final demand
Residential & Commercial: It has been considered a lower growth of new residential customers than the current trend (+60.000 customers per year). The R&C gas demand decreases due to the efficiency effect (aligned with the PRIMES scenario).
Industrial: The efficiency effect is similar than in the EUCO 2030 scenario. An increasing GDP and new industrial customers induce a growth of the Industrial consumption since these effects are greater than the efficiency.
Non-network: Stable consumption
Power generation
Growth of wind and solar installed power accordingly with the EUCO 2030 scenario. Despite the dismantling of the coal (according to the EUCO 2030 scenario) and the increasing energy exports, the power generation with gas decreases due to the emergence of distributed generation.
- FI (Finland)
Methodology
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- FR (France)
Methodology
Scenarios for final demand are consistent with the scenarios developed jointly by GRTgaz, TIGF, GRDF and SPEGNN in the first Multiannual Forward Estimate published in November 2016. It is consistent with GRTgaz’s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016-2025, also published in November 2016.
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Final demand for Global Climate Action is based on Scenario C from national multiannual forward estimate 2016. This scenario follows a low trend for gas consumption. It assumes the impact of new environmental regulation leading to a decline in gas consumption. Gas for transport sees a moderate growth.
The target of a 30% reduction in the consumption of fossil fuel applies to gas, notwithstanding its performance compared to oil or coal.
Power generation
Scenarios for final demand are consistent with the scenarios developed jointly by GRTgaz, TIGF, GRDF and SPEGNN in the first Multiannual Forward Estimate published in November 2016. It is consistent with GRTgaz’s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016-2025, also published in November 2016.
Production
The growth of local biomethane production is high. The national Law on energy transition targets increasing the share of renewable energy to 10% of gas consumption by 2030. This scenario assumes a pro-active development up to 30 TWh of biomethane injected into the gas grid in 2030.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Final demand for Sustainable Transition is based on Scenario B from national multiannual forward estimate 2016. This scenario follows a high trend for gas consumption. It assumes a growing use of gas in the industry and in the residential sector, used as a substitute for fuels whose environmental and economical impact is less favourable. The development of gas for transport is being advocated proactively to reach 1 million vehicles.
This scenario is in line with national objectives set for 2023, and a little behind regarding objectives for 2030.
Power generation
Demand for Power Generation is consistent with the data submitted by RTE for Sustainable Transition. The installed capacity for gas-fired power plant remains stable at 6.7 GW (including Bouchain and Landivisiau) while the duration of use is steadily growing.
Production
The growth of local biomethane production is high. The national Law on energy transition targets increasing the share of renewable energy to 10% of gas consumption by 2030. This scenario assumes a pro-active development up to 30 TWh of biomethane injected into the gas grid in 2030.
Distributed Generation
Final demand
Final demand for Distributed Generation is based on Scenario A from national multiannual forward estimate 2016. This scenario follows a main trend. It takes into account the current regulation and tolerable efforts from households and industry both in terms of energy savings and energy efficiency. The development of gas for transport follows a high growth.
Power generation
Gas Demand for Power Generation is significantly reduced in this scenario. Profitability for gas-fired power plant is low and gas demand for cogeneration is stagnating. The installed capacity for gas-fired power plant remains stable but the duration of use is low.
Production
The growth of local biomethane production is high. The national Law on energy transition targets increasing the share of renewable energy to 10% of gas consumption by 2030. This scenario assumes a pro-active development up to 30 TWh of biomethane injected into the gas grid in 2030.
- GR (Greece)
Sustainable Transition
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- HR (Croatia)
Methodology
The data related to the future Croatian gas consumption are consistent with PLINACRO’s Ten Year Network Development Plan 2016-2026. The demand predictions were carried out by direct survey of future expected gas needs from PLINACRO’s customers: gas distribution companies, direct industrial customers, petrochemical industry and electricity production companies. It is presumed that surveyed gas consumption should be in line with the Croatian energy policies and consumption trends, which by their main characteristics fits to the Sustainable Transition scenario.
It is estimated that the gas consumption in gas distribution sector and for direct industrial customers will decrease in Global Climate Action scenario, compared to the Sustainable development scenario, due to the introduction of new renewable technologies (related to the reduction of CO2) and other actions which will be undertaken related to the mitigation of climate change. In the Distributed Generation scenario, it is expected that the gas consumption in gas distribution sector and for direct industrial customers will increase, when compared to the Sustainable Transition scenario, with more gas used in the local, small electricity production units.
The new renewable technologies (related to the reduction of CO2) and other actions which will be undertaken related to the mitigation of climate change from Global Climate Action scenario, and more locally, in small electricity production units produced electricity from Distributed Generation scenario results will decrease of gas use in classical power generation units which is represented with the reduction of gas consumption for power generation in both Global Climate Action and Distributed Generation.
- HU (Hungary)
Methodology
FGSZ Ltd. final demand has been developed on basis the Hungarian Distribution System Operators and consumers directly connected to the natural gas transmission system and Network Users forecast data and experience of the TSO’s analysis of the last six years consumption especially in case of temperature dependent exit points.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Global Climate Action
The TSO estimates the Final Demand Average decrease more than 2 % per year and the Demand Average Power Generation increase less than 2 % per year.
Sustainable Transition
The TSO estimates the Final Demand Average decrease less than 1 % per year and the Demand Average Power Generation increase more than 2 % per year.
Distributed Generation
The TSO estimates the Final Demand Average decrease ~1,5 % per year and the Demand Average Power Generation increase less than 1,3 % per year.
- IE (Ireland)
Methodology
The demand forecasts presented in the document are based on the median demand scenario from the Gas Networks Ireland Network Development Plan 2016.
In the power generation sector gas demand forecasts are developed based on the key assumptions from the Eirgrid Generation Capacity Statement 2016-2025 in terms of electricity demand and generation capacity.
In the residential sector Gas Networks Ireland’s own new connection forecasts have been developed. These forecasts take account of observed fuel switching in mature housing and new housing forecasts, based on enquiries from developers and observed trends in new housing planning applications.
In the Industrial & Commercial sectors gas demand forecasts are based on the observed relationship between demand growth and GDP growth, with an additional incremental allowance for new connections.
Energy efficiency savings impacting on Industrial & Commercial and residential gas demands are also allowed for based on the Irish Government’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan.
In the transport sector Gas Networks Ireland is undertaking a European funded project called the Causeway Study in order to encourage the uptake of CNG by commercial fleet operators. This study aims to examine the impact of increased levels of fast fill CNG stations on the operation of the transmission and distribution gas networks in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). A pilot network of 14 CNG units along the TEN-T (Trans European Transport Network) Core Road Network will be built to assess the impact on the gas network. Activities will encompass developing an understanding of the operation and planning of the network, CNG equipment, CNG user demand patterns and behaviours, and the injection of renewable gas into the gas transmission system.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand provided by TSO.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- IT (Italy)
Methodology
All data are the result of internal elaborations.
The scenarios are built starting from macroeconomic variables (such as GDP, Industrial Production Index, Inflection, Energy prices, CO2 prices) and constraints (such as environmental policies, EU and national targets, scenario guidelines). These inputs are fed into a model which builds a complete primary energy mix (solids, natural gas, oil, renewables, electricity) for each sector. The model also builds the power balance to assess the electricity generation mix. The overall gas demand is obtained as the sum of the sectorial demands.
Conventional and non-conventional gas productions are obtained through an elaboration of historical data and expected future developments.
The developed scenarios are consistent with the ones built for the ten-year development plan of SNAM Rete Gas.
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Natural gas demand in R&C and industrial sectors decreases, mainly because of improvements in energy efficiency. Strong penetration of natural gas in the transport sector.
Residential & Commercial
In the Global Climate Action scenario, a high penetration of electric heat pumps for heating and cooling purposes in the residential sector pushes the electricity demand at the expense of the gas demand.
In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 11,6 Bcm, reaching 17,2 Bcm in 2040.
Industrial
Demand in industrial sector decreases by -0,9% in 2017-2040.
The impact of energy efficiency improvements is limited since natural gas consumption is already quite low. In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 3,3 Bcm, reaching 14,3 Bcm in 2040.
Transport
CNG penetration suffers from a higher share of electric vehicles, while biomethane penetration is in line with Sustainable Transition scenario, contributing to reach the renewable share target in fuels.
Overall gas consumption in transport increases by 7,3 Bcm, reaching 8,4 Bcm in 2040.
Non-network
Use of LNG in heavy transport and bunkering grow significantly over the period by 4,2 Bcm (20,6% yearly), reaching 4,3 Bcm in 2040.
Power generation
After 2020, high renewables penetration lowers the demand for fossil fuels. In the long term, gas demand for power generation is slightly higher than in the ST scenario, because of a complete switch from coal to gas driven by a CO2 price reaching 50 €/t (in particular after 2034). 10 Bcm of biomethane in 2040. Italy halves electricity imports over the period, mainly because of French nuclear phase out, in line with the Transition énergétique. Imports decrease from 40,2 TWh in 2017 to 19,8 TWh in 2040. Gas demand increases by 8,5 Bcm in 2017-2040, reaching 30 Bcm.
Production
Conventional production decreases sharply in the 2017-2040 period by 4,3 Bcm (-4,7% yearly), reaching 2,1 Bcm in 2040. On the other hand, biomethane production increases by 29,9% yearly reaching 12,1 Bcm in 2040 (from almost zero in 2017).
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Natural gas demand in R&C and industrial sectors decreases, mainly because of improvements in energy efficiency. Strong penetration of natural gas in the transport sector.
Residential & Commercial
Gas demand in R&C sector decreases by -1,1% in 2017-2040, driven mainly by energy efficiency improvements.
In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 6,7 Bcm, reaching 22,1 Bcm in 2040.
Industrial
Demand in industrial sector decreases by -0,9% in 2017-2040.
The impact of energy efficiency improvements is limited since natural gas consumption is already quite low. In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 3,3 Bcm, reaching 14,3 Bcm in 2040.
Transport
Highest growth in CNG consumption for road transport because of high financial support to the usage of this fuel in private cars and commercial car fleets. Moderate penetration of electricity in road transport. Natural gas consumption increases by 9,9 Bcm in 2017-2040, reaching 11 Bcm in 2040.
Non-network
Use of LNG in heavy transport and bunkering grow significantly over the period by 4,2 Bcm (20,6% yearly), reaching 4,3 Bcm in 2040.
Power generation
A high coal price causes the low efficiency (< 32,5%) coal plants to shut down, in favor of the more efficient gas plants. Natural gas reaches 29 Bcm in 2040 (+7,5 Bcm with respect to 2017), of which 10 Bcm of biomethane, playing an important role as non-intermittent RES.
Production
Conventional production decreases sharply in the 2017-2040 period by 4,3 Bcm (-4,7% yearly), reaching 2,1 Bcm in 2040. On the other hand, biomethane production increases by 29,9% yearly reaching 12,1 Bcm in 2040 (from almost zero in 2017).
Distributed Generation
Final demand
Natural gas demand in R&C and industrial sectors decreases, mainly because of improvements in energy efficiency and consistent growth of distributed generation. Strong penetration of natural gas in the transport sector.
Residential & Commercial
A high penetration of electric heat pumps for heating and cooling purposes in the residential sector pushes the electricity demand at the expense of the gas demand.
In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 11,6 Bcm, reaching 17,2 Bcm in 2040.
Industrial
Demand in industrial sector decreases by -0,9% in 2017-2040.
The impact of energy efficiency improvements is limited since natural gas consumption is already quite low. In the 2017-2040 period, the demand decreases by 3,3 Bcm, reaching 14,3 Bcm in 2040.
Transport
Biomethane penetration is in line with ST and GCA scenarios. Electric vehicles penetration is slightly higher than in the GCA scenario, reducing the share of fossil fuels. Overall gas consumption in transport increases by 5,2 Bcm in 2017-2040, reaching 6,3 Bcm in 2040.
Non-network
Use of LNG in heavy transport and bunkering grow significantly over the period by 4,2 Bcm (20,6% yearly), reaching 4,3 Bcm in 2040.
Power generation
After 2020, PV penetration is even higher than in the GCA scenario, causing the gas demand for power to further decrease. Same assumption of complete coal-to-gas switch after 2034. Same penetration of biomethane as in ST and GCA scenarios. Natural gas reaches 24,6 Bcm in 2040 (+3,1 Bcm with respect to 2017), of which 10 Bcm of biomethane.
Production
Conventional production decreases sharply in the 2017-2040 period by 4,3 Bcm (-4,7% yearly), reaching 2,1 Bcm in 2040. On the other hand, biomethane production increases by 29,9% yearly reaching 12,1 Bcm in 2040 (from almost zero in 2017).
- LT (Lithuania)
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
The input data only for Sustainable Transition scenario has been provided. The forecast for the Final demand is based on the historical data on gas consumption in Lithuania, system users survey results and overall energy sector development perspectives in Lithuania.
Residential & Commercial
Industrial
The forecast for industrial sector is based on the historical data on gas consumption in Lithuania, system users survey results and overall energy sector development perspectives in Lithuania.
Transport
The forecast for transport sector is based on the historical data received from the Statistics Department of Lithuania, system users survey results and overall energy sector development perspectives in Lithuania.
Non-network
There is no non-network gas consumption in Lithuania.
Power generation
The input data for power generation is based on the historical data on gas consumption for power generation in Lithuania, system users survey results to split the shares of gas used for electricity generation and heating in power generation facilities and overall energy sector development perspectives in Lithuania.
Production
There is no production in Lithuania.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- LU (Luxembourg)
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the different scenarios in line with the TYNDP 2018 scenarios. No further comments are to be reported on the final gas demand.
Residential & Commercial
Gas reduction as mentioned for the scenario.
Industrial
Stable gas consumption for industry compared to the previous year.
Transport
Gas consumption close to zero, therefore neglected for the scenarios
Non-network
No gas non-network can be reported.
Power generation
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the gas demand for power generation. As Creos Luxembourg did not have any firm capacity reserved for electrical generation, we provided zero values for each scenario. Gas demand for decentralized high-efficiency cogeneration connected to heat distribution systems will slightly increase. As we are talking about a DSO network and as the values are close to zero, they were neglected in the TYNDP gas, This approach was coordinated with the electricity TSO.
Production
No gas production can be reported for Luxembourg.
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the different scenarios in line with the TYNDP 2018 scenarios. No further comments are to be reported on the final gas demand.
Residential & Commercial
Gas slight reduction as mentioned for the scenario
Industrial
Stable gas consumption for industry compared to the previous year.
Transport
Gas consumption close to zero, therefore neglected for the scenarios
Non-network
No gas non-network can be reported
Power generation
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the gas demand for power generation. As Creos Luxembourg did not have any firm capacity reserved, we provided zero values for each scenario. Gas demand for decentralized high-efficiency cogeneration connected to heat distribution systems will be stable. As we are talking about a DSO network and as the values are close to zero, they were neglected in the TYNDP gas, This approach was coordinated with the electricity TSO.
Production
No gas production can be reported for Luxembourg
Distributed Generation
Final demand
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the different scenarios in line with the TYNDP 2018 scenarios. No further comments are to be reported on the final gas demand.
Residential & Commercial
Gas reduction as mentioned for the scenario
Industrial
Gas slight reduction as mentioned for the scenario
Transport
Gas consumption close to zero, therefore neglected for the scenarios
Non-network
No gas non-network can be reported
Power generation
Creos Luxembourg submitted the inputs for the gas demand for power generation. As Creos Luxembourg did not have any firm capacity reserved, we provided zero values for each scenario. Gas demand for decentralized high-efficiency cogeneration connected to heat distribution systems will slightly increase. As we are talking about a DSO network and as the values are close to zero, they were neglected in the TYNDP gas, This approach was coordinated with the electricity TSO.
Production
No gas production can be reported for Luxembourg
- LV (Latvia)
Methodology
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- MK (FYROM)
Sustainable Transition
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- MT (Malta)
Methodology
As from 2017, Malta will be switching its main electricity generation fuel from heavy fuel oil to natural gas. In line with this objective, gas will be supplied from an LNG terminal in Delimara, consisting of a floating storage unit and on-shore regasification plant, to a new 215 MW base-load gas-fired CCGT and 149MW existing diesel engine plant which has been converted to gas.The LNG supply is considered as an intermediate solution until the Malta-Italy gas interconnection is in place.
The ‘Sustainable Transition’ scenario is considered as the most relevant scenario for the gasification of Malta as from 2017 initially for fuelling of the local power generating plant.
Final gas demand projections submitted for non-network and transport are based on the Malta Gas Connection Feasibility Study completed in April 2015. No infrastructure is currently in place for land transport/maritime bunkering and inland market. It is being assumed that the required infrastructure will be in place by 2025. Projections are preliminary and will need to be updated following detailed studies and market development.
Gas demand represented as non-network demand in scenarios, as network demand is reliant on the completion of projects and therefore classified as gasification demand.
Sustainable Transition
The ‘Sustainable Transition’ scenario is considered as the most relevant scenario for the gasification of Malta as from 2017, initially for fuelling the local power generating plant.
Final demand
Projections submitted in this sheet have been based on the Malta Gas Connection Feasibility & CBA Study completed in April 2015.
No infrastructure is currently in place for land transport/maritime bunkering and inland market. It is being assumed that the required infrastructure will be in place by 2025. Inland market is being assumed as non-network distribution of gas possibly through small-scale CNG or LNG hubs.
Projections are only preliminary and will need to be updated following detailed studies and market development.
Residential & Commercial
From preliminary studies, an inland gas distribution network is not considered feasible. Future gas demand from these two sectors is included under non-network demand.
Industrial
From preliminary studies, an inland gas distribution network is not considered feasible. Future gas demand from this sector is included under non-network demand.
Transport
Projections submitted have been based on the Malta Gas Connection Feasibility & CBA Study completed in April 2015 and is attributed to use of LNG primarily as a fuel for maritime transport and marginally for road transport.
Non-network
Projections submitted have been based on the Malta Gas Connection Feasibility & CBA Study completed in April 2015 and assumes non-network demand supplied through small inland LNG/CNG hubs.
Power generation
As from 2017, Malta will be switching its main electricity generation fuel from heavy fuel oil to natural gas. In line with this objective, gas will be supplied from an LNG terminal in Delimara, consisting of a floating storage unit and on-shore regasification plant, to a new 215 MW base-load gas-fired CCGT and 149MW existing diesel engine plant which has been converted to gas.The LNG supply is considered as an intermediate solution until the Malta-Italy gas interconnection is in place.
The 2-week maximum and peak day gas demand for power generation is expected to occur in the summer and not in the winter period.
Production
Not Applicable for Malta
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- NL (The Netherlands)
Methodology
Scenario data provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
A balance was applied to power and industrial demand to avoid double counting of CHP units between TSO submission and ENTSO-E market modelling results.
- PL (Poland)
Global Climate Action
The gas demand in Poland under the Global Climate Action scenario shows moderate increase in the residential and industrial sectors. Increasing demand in these two sectors is mainly due to gasification of new areas in the country as well as substitution of coal-fired furnaces with the ones supplied with gas.
In the electricity sector a moderate growth in gas consumption is expected. Natural gas has a limited share in electricity generation in Poland. In order to meet the EU emission policy goals, there are a number of combined heat and power plants under construction or under consideration. FID projects are included in the scenario.
Sustainable Transition
The gas demand in Poland under the Sustainable Transition scenario shows more dynamic increase in the residential and industrial sectors in comparison to the Distributed Generation and Green Climate Action scenarios. The expected difference between these scenarios is due to enhanced gasification of new regions and quicker transition from coal to gas in households.
In the electricity sector a significant increase in gas consumption is expected. Natural gas has a limited share in electricity generation in Poland. In order to meet the EU emission policy goals, there are a number of combined heat and power plants under construction or under consideration. Due to more favourable conditions on the market, greater number of projects are included in the scenario.
Distributed Generation
The gas demand in Poland under the Distributed Generation scenario shows moderate increase in the residential and industrial sectors. Increasing demand in these two sectors is mainly due to gasification of new areas in the country as well as substitution of coal-fired furnaces with the ones supplied with gas.
In the electricity sector a moderate growth in gas consumption is expected. Natural gas has a limited share in electricity generation in Poland. In order to meet the EU emission policy goals, there are a number of combined heat and power plants under construction or under consideration. The projects where FID is likely, are included in the scenario.
- PT (Portugal)
Methodology
Final demand
The methodology that REN used in 2016 for the demand forecasts is the same as the one used in 2015.The main drivers for the demand estimation are national policy, GDP (Gross Domestic Production), GVA (Gross Value Added) of the different sectors of the economy, the available income of the families and the extension of the NG networks in the country. For CHP the main drivers of the forecast are the power capacity installed, the number of working hours per year of the units and the rate of the progressive replacement of the fuel oil and gasoil units for natural gas and RES production ones. The assumptions considered for the application of the model were updated with the latest information available and they were also agreed with the Portuguese Energy Directorate (DGEG) during the preparation of the security of supply report of 2016.
In spite of not applying all the assumptions described in the ENTSOs’ (G and E) new story lines in detail and to its fully extent, REN considers that the results obtained fulfil the request and are in line with the other countries forecasts also. As a result, the forecast of each scenario in the Portuguese case leads to:
1. Sustainable transition is the REN’s central demand scenario;
2. REN’s low demand scenario was used for both the Distributed and Global Climate Action scenarios.
Power generation – general methodology
The Portuguese electricity sector is characterized by the decommissioning of all coal-fired power generation by 2030. Due to the lack of competing thermal technology, the general methodology provides different values for the Portuguese gas demand in the power generation sector that depend on the objectives of energy policy defined by the Government, which include the electricity sector demand forecast, the information on the power installed capacity for electricity production, and the fuel and CO~2~ prices.
From 2017 to 2030, the main driver for gas consumption in the power generation sector is the year when the two existing coal Power Plants will be decommissioned, which will be determined by the energy policy defined by the Government. At the moment, taking into consideration the aim of the interlinked model to be used in gas and electricity sectors, only one scenario was considered in the information already submitted to ENTSO-E: the first coal Power Plant will be decommissioned in the end of 2021 and the second one will be decommissioned between 2026 and 2029, meaning that both coal Power Plants won’t be in operation in 2030. The electricity demand scenario used in the gas to power simulations corresponds to the central demand forecast of the electricity sector in Portugal.
Final Remarks
REN decided to keep consistency with the national methodologies and forecasted data jointly constructed in 2016 with the Portuguese Energy Directorate (DGEG), which are the base for the national TYNDPs and other reports, like security of supply reports, risk assessment reports, etc.
The assumptions described in the ENTSOG’s story lines are quite covered by REN’s assumptions on its scenarios and the results obtained are in line with the other countries forecasts also.
REN is a TSO of both gas and electricity networks and the forecasts are made based on the most updated information available. The general assumptions are defined at the same time for both the electricity and gas sectors in Portugal and the assumptions considered in the final gas demand and power generation forecasts must be kept consistent along the period considered.
Production
No production foreseen.
- RO (Romania)
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
The Romanian Energy Strategy (draft document) estimates a decrease of gas share in the primary energy mix from 29% in 2015 to 27% in 2030. Nevertheless, a slight increase of gas demand (as compared to 2015) is foreseen based on the industry, transport and household consumption demand.
Residential & Commercial
Until 2030 an increase in gas consumption for house heating is estimated, limited by the house energy efficiency increase, influenced mainly by the following factors:
• The increasing number of houses using gas for heating;
• The increasing of the thermal comfort of the gas-heated houses.
Industrial
For 2015-2030 an increase of industrial consumption is estimated, due to a higher demand in transports and parts and equipment industry.
Transport
For year 2030 the Romanian Energy Strategy estimates a slight increase of gas share in the total demand of energy for transport by 1.5% as compared to 2015.
Power generation
One of the strategic options of Romania is to encourage the increasing of gas share in the power mix of Romania, due to its role of transition fuel to a sustainable economy. Gas is recommended by the flexibility of the power plants using it, which can easily balance renewables intermittent production, and the relatively small greenhouse gas emissions.
Production
Although gas production has become stable as a consequence of investments in the extension of the life span of existing fields and development of new ones, between 2016 – 2030 a slight decrease of onshore production is estimated. The maintenance of a low dependence upon imports is subject to the development of the recently discovered Black Sea gas sources.
Distributed Generation, Global Climate Action
Final demand reflects TYNDP 2017 Green Revolution data.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- RS (Serbia)
Methodology
No Serbian data was submitted during the data collection. Data reflects TYNDP 2017 information calculated based on the available information about gas exports to Serbia from the ENTSOG Transparency Platform.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- SE (Sweden)
Methodology
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
Global Climate Action
Final demand
Transport sector underpins a CAGR of 0,25 %
Power generation
No change from our base case
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
Transport sector underpins a CAGR of 0,50 %
Power generation
Power generation to increase from 2026 with a CAGR of 2 %
Distributed Generation
Final demand
A total decline of -1% per year is assumed
Power generation
No change from our base case
- SI (Slovenia)
Methodology
Final demand provided by TSO. No further comments have been reported.
Sectoral split calculated using sectoral data methodology.
Gas demand for power generation calculated from ENTSO-E modelling results.
- SK (Slovakia)
Methodology
What relates to data sources - we have extracted some data out of a study. The study was worked out for the Slovak E-TSO.
Some data were used from the outlooks of the Ministry of Economy. Furthermore, many important data
were taken out from the development plan and also from the national DSO.
- UK (United Kingdom)
Methodology
All data submitted for the scenarios corresponds to the Future Energy Scenarios 2016 developed by National Grid (http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/FES/Documents-archive/)
Global Climate Action
Final demand
From National Grids “Gone Green” Scenario – 2016 Future Energy Scenarios.
GB + NI. Excludes.Power, Moffat Export , IUK & Shrinkage
Sustainable Transition
Final demand
From National Grids “Slow Progression” Scenario – 2016 Future Energy Scenarios.
GB + NI. Excludes.Power, Moffat Export , IUK & Shrinkage
Distributed Generation
Final demand
From National Grids “Consumer Power” Scenario – 2016 Future Energy Scenarios.
GB + NI. Excludes.Power, Moffat Export , IUK & Shrinkage