Assumptions for fuel and carbon prices

Fuel and carbon prices are key inputs to the development process. The ENTSOs have used the information provided by the IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO), which considers the global context and development that influences commodity prices.

The storyline for each scenario is used to map the World Energy Outlook scenario to the respective ENTSOs counterpart. The majority of the data used reflects that of the World Energy Outlook 2016 report, which has the scenarios of Current Policies, New Policies and the 450 Scenario. In order to more accurately reflect the storylines developed, references to the Low Oil Price Scenario from WEO 2015 were used for Sustainable Transition, plus CO2 prices were increased for Distributed Generation. Further insight into these changes, plus the effects and usage of prices can be found within the annex supporting this report. The fuel prices for the EUCO 2030 scenario are provided directly by DG ENER.

For power generation, these inputs determine the marginal prices of each thermal power unit depending on its efficiency and emissions. Each unit is linked to one fuel price depending on its type.

Gas price will be used as the reference price for gas supplies during the TYNDP assessment.

The following table provides a summary of the fuel prices used within the scenario building framework. All prices should be considered as expressed in real terms (in this case as they are based on the WEO prices), in €2015. A particular case is made for biofuel powered units where the possibility to specify a price for biofuel for each country was possible (defined by each of the TSOs).

Table 1: Fuel & CO~2~ Price Assumptions

This section is structured in three parts:

• Fuel prices that are considered as constant over the time and scenarios;

• Prices that are changing with the time and scenarios;

• Prices used for TYNDP 2018 storylines and adjustments made to WEO prices or reference from DG Energy for EUCO 2030 scenario.

All prices should be considered as expressed in real terms (in this case as they are based on the WEO prices), in €2015.