TYNDP 2018 – Scenario Report
Foreward
It is with great pleasure that the two ENTSOs release this Scenario Report.
Our infrastructure is the backbone for the delivery of gas and electricity to citizens across all of the EU. It aims to connect countries and ensure secure, competitive and sustainable access to energy for customers throughout the year. As the EU voluntarily undertakes the energy transition, this infrastructure will have a key role to play in supporting the uptake of new technologies and meeting ambitious decarbonisation challenges. The TYNDPs are here to assess the requirements for these aims, in terms of the infrastructure. The starting point for that is to define scenarios depicting the future which the EU strives to achieve.
For the first time both ENTSOs have joined efforts to develop a common set of scenarios, building on their combined expertise and modelling capabilities as well as on the input received from dozens of stakeholders from the industry, NGOs, National Regulatory Authorities and Member States. This co-development approach results in a set of ambitious, technically robust and equally realistic scenarios. Joint scenarios outline three markedly different possible paths towards a low-carbon energy system in line with EU targets. They build on innovative and challenging storylines and are complemented by an additional perspective based on the EC EUCO30 policy scenario.
Both ENTSOs believe that the unique value of the presented scenarios lies in their comprehensiveness and transparency. This makes them the best possible fundament to perform a fully-fledged and fully consistent test and assessment of the electricity and gas infrastructure, against the very same possible future developments, as part of the TYNDPs 2018. We also see these transparent scenarios as a sound basis for any party wishing to perform their own analysis of future energy policies, market designs or technologies.
The scenarios highlight that consumers will be central towards achieving decarbonisation, through an evolution of behaviour, a fit-for-purpose regulatory framework and reliance on a renewable energy through new usages. This will be especially the case for the transport and heating sectors, where clear complementarities and synergies appear between electricity and gas. In this context, smart integration of the electricity, gas and transport systems and smart approaches to handling peak demand will be key in the future energy landscape.
Decarbonisation should be smart, efficient and secure. Therefore, for the first time together both ENTSOs examine the possible renewable generation, renewable gases development and the uptake of a wide range of technologies, among which smart grid technologies, centralised or smaller scale electricity storage, power-to-gas or CCS/CCU still deserve to be further explored.
The presented scenarios set the scene for EU energy and climate goals. The TYNDPs will next assess what this calls for in terms of developing the electricity and gas infrastructure, for society to materialize the benefits of meeting EU ambitious goals.
Now, the consultation process for Scenario Report will run for 2 months until November 1, 2017 (check) and we are welcoming viewpoints from all stakeholders. We have also arranged a joint workshop on October 9, 2017 at which we invite you to participate in the debate.
Introduction
What is this report about?
This Scenario Report provides a detailed overview of possible European energy futures up to 2040. All scenarios have been built as realistic and technically sound, based on forward looking policies, whilst also being ambitious in nature and aiming at reducing emissions by 80 to 95% in line with EU targets for 2050. They will be used by ENTSOs and other organisations to analyse the future of the European energy system, starting with the yearly Mid-term Adequacy Forecast released for consultation by ENTSO-E in autumn 2017 and the Ten Years Network Development Plans for gas and electricity to be released in 2018.
New platforms to study the future of gas and electricity, designed by all
For the first time, the ENTSOs for gas and electricity have joined their efforts and expertise to provide a joint set of scenarios, allowing for assessments of future investment decisions in Europe to be based on comparable analysis between the sectors.
Dozens of representatives from all sides of the energy sector, consumer and environmental associations, governments and regulators have co-constructed a new set of storylines with the ENTSOs. Together, we described three markedly different and ambitious paths towards delivering the future European emission targets. They have been complemented by an external scenario for 2030. These scenarios set the frame for a rich range of indicators including macro-economic trends, energy use in different sectors, technological input assumptions and power generation by fuel type.
This uniquely common approach has led to resolutely forward looking scenarios. The expertise of gas and electricity TSOs also ensures that the scenarios are broadly technically feasible, for instance allowing to maintain the energy balance at all time in each country. This is key to test the need and performance of possible future infrastructure in challenging but realistic situations.
What are the main storylines of the scenarios?
The TYNDP 2018 scenarios cover from 2020 to 2040. 2020 and 2025 are labelled as Best Estimate scenarios due to a lower level of uncertainty. As uncertainty increases over longer time horizons, the 2030 and 2040 scenarios have been designed with European 2050 targets as an objective, taking into recognition the work done in the e-Highway 2050 project.
The scenarios for 2030 and 2040 follow these storylines, co-constructed with stakeholders representing among others the industry, NGOs, Member States and Regulators:
Sustainable Transition
Targets reached through national regulation, emission trading schemes and subsidies, maximising the use of existing infrastructure.
Distributed Generation
Prosumers at the centre – small scale generation, batteries and fuel switching - society engaged and empowered.
Global Climate Action
Full speed global decarbonisation, large scale renewables development in both electricity and gas sectors.
External Scenario: Based on EUCO30
EUCO30 is a core policy scenario produced by the European Commission. The scenario models the achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets as agreed by the European Council in 2014, but including an energy efficiency target of 30%. The ENTSOs both welcome this new collaboration with the European Commission and welcome further cooperation.
How to read this report?
The report is intended to provide readers with a condensed overview of the scenarios. This includes the storylines and key assumptions of these scenarios (Chapter 2) that lead into the scenario results (Chapter 3) in terms of demand, supply and EU climate targets. The stakeholder engagement process (Chapter 4) has been fundamental to select which scenarios to consider and give them their framework. The significant changes in the scenario building process that have taken place compared to the latest TYNDP editions are summarised in the scenario development methodology (Chapter 5). This intensive scenario development process is the starting point towards electricity and gas TYNDPs next steps (Chapter 6).
The ENTSOs scenario development process is unique in that it comes with a huge amount of scenario data, at country-level granularity, made transparently available public-wide, which go beyond the overview provided in this Scenario Report. Interested stakeholders are invited to review the additional information and data in the Annexes [provide link], to consult the scenario data on ENTSOs websites and to join ENTSOs Scenario Workshop on 9 October 2017.