EUCO30 Electricity installed capacity and generation

For the EUCO30 scenario the source data was provided by the European Commission based on the EU Reference Scenario 2016. Although the source data contained the basic information needed for modelling the power system, the granularity, the resolution and the definitions of the input data for ENTSO-E tools differed from the source data and thus a methodology to transform the data is necessary which is described in the following section.

1. Load data

The source data contained final annual energy demand including electric vehicles and heat pumps. ENTSO-E applies hourly load time series for its electricity system modelling and for the TYNDP 2018, the load time series for different climatic conditions based on three different years (1982, 1984 and 2007) as reference were used as input. In order to obtain the load time series for different climatic conditions for the EUCO scenario the annual consumption of electric vehicles and the number of heat pumps was estimated using consumption profiles applied by ENTSO-E. Next, the hourly load time series were calculated taking into account the temperature sensitivity of the load. As a last step the load time series was scaled so that the average annual electricity consumption corresponded of 34 climatic years (1982 to 2015) matched the final electricity demand of the source data.

1. Generation capacities:

The installed generation capacity of RES, especially wind and solar was directly extracted by the source data. For biomass units, it was assumed, that the units are flexible if the must-run share was below 50%. If the must-run share was above 50% the units have been considered with an infeed times series corresponding to the must-run capacity. The categories for conventional thermal units of the source data have been mapped to categories for thermal power plants applied by ENTSO-E. The splitting of the total generation capacity into blocks has been made using typical block sizes. For must run obligations it was assumed that there are no seasonal patterns. For Hydro generation patterns the climatic conditions (especially inflow) play an important role. In order to compatible with the ENTSO-E methodology with regard to consideration of different climatic reference years, the hydro data of the source data was compared to the data sets available for the other ENTSO-E scenarios and it was concluded that the hydro generation data of Sustainable transition 2030 was closest to the source data of EUCO.

For countries with no source data for the EUCO scenario that are part of the EU28+ scope of the electricity TYNDP2018, the data collected for Sustainable Transition 2030 is used.