Seasonal and high demand situations
The day of highest consumption in the year is a key input of the network design process and represents one of the most stressful situations to be covered by the gas transmission system. The design and operation of a system is also challenged by the availability of supply sources during periods of high consumption.
Gas demand in Europe shows a strong seasonal pattern, with demand being substantially higher in the winter than in the summer. These variations are largely driven by temperature related heat demands in the Residential and Commercial sectors. It is therefore critical to test gas infrastructure both on a volumetric and peak demand basis, and as a result both seasonal variation and high demand data is collected.
The following high demand situations are defined in the data collection:
2-week high demand case (2W, 14 day uniform risk): Maximum aggregation of gas demand reached over 14 consecutive days once every twenty years in each country to capture the influence of a long cold spell on supply and especially on storage. The 14 days high demand period takes place based on the modelled situation from the over-the-whole-year simulation and is modelled starting on 15 February (after day 106 of storage withdrawal period).
1-day Design Case (DC, Peak): Maximum level of gas demand used for the design of the network in each country to capture maximum transported energy and ensure consistency with national regulatory frameworks. The peak day takes place based on the modelled situation from the over-the-whole-year simulation and is modelled on 31 January (after day 91 of storage withdrawal period).
No seasonal or high demand data was available from the EUCO30 data provided, therefore ENTSOG has applied a ratio to derive this information from yearly average data. This ratio is based on the data provided by gas TSO for the Global Climate Action, seeing the variation from yearly average to 2 Week and Peak Day demand levels.
Power generation peak and 2 week data can be sourced from the ENTSO-E market model results, by looking at the highest generation over a single day and consecutive 14 days. This is available from three climatic years, but this may not cover the regulatory requirements for TYNDP assessment. As a result, during the creation of the final scenario results after public consultation, ENTSOG will assess gas TSO high demand power assumptions against the gas installed capacity in order to provide the necessary data for TYNDP assessment.