Gas Demand for Power Generation

General information

Gas for power generation for all scenarios is the result of the ENTSO-E modelling results. During the data collection phase, gas and electricity TSO worked together to discuss gas installed capacity on a country level basis.

Yearly gas demand for power generation averages are calculated from the average of all approved models across all climate years.

2-Week and Peak data is derived from the highest 2 week gas generation and single day gas generation coming from the 1982 climate year and using a single model that was available across all 2030 and 2040 scenarios. A different model was used to derive data for the 2020 and 2025 Best Estimate scenarios, again using 1982 with the model selected due to availability and consistency.

Gas share of Other Non-RES (ONR)

As well as the specifically categorised gas fuelled installed capacity, Other Non-RES capacity also exists as part of the generation mix. Where available from e-TSO, gas share of Other Non-RES has been applied accordingly. Where no data was provided, nearly a 30% share of gas generation has been assumed unless justification could be provided by g-TSO for another factor, details in the table below.

Without the plant level detail available as with the other generation capacity, an assumed NCV efficiency rating of 50% has been applied.

Table 25: Reported share of Other Non-RES technology between Coal, Gas and Oil plus total capacity. Calculated gas share used in conversion of electricity generation to gas consumption.

Electricity generation to gas consumption

The data outputs from the ENTSO-E modelling results is in the form of net generation. In order to convert to the require fuel input that will be used in the ENTSOG model, several factors need to be applied.

  1. Conversion factor to gross generation. Takes into account plant own uses of energy. Although these losses are likely to have been effectively reduced to improve profitability, some energy efficiency improvement is assumed over time.
Factor 2020 - 2025 2030 2040
Net to Gross Generation 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

Table 26: Conversion factor for net to gross generation

  1. Efficiency of power plants. This has been determined by the ENTSO-E dataset detailing standard efficiency per power plant classification.

Table 27: Gas power plant efficiency

  1. Net Calorific Value (NCV) to Gross Calorific Value (GCV). Power plant efficiency is calculated on NCV, in order to bring gas demand for power generation in line with other data collected for the scenarios, this needs to be represented in GCV.
Factor 2020 - 2025 2030 2040
NCV to GCV 10% 10% 10%

Table 28: NCV to GCV conversion

  1. Country and zonal demand. Due to differences in balancing zones for electricity and gas, some data has been grouped and split accordingly.

Table 29: ENTSO-E/ENTSOG Balancing zones

Gas for power generation data was collected from all gas TSO as well and is available as part of the excel data tables. Gas TSO liaised with Electricity TSO regarding installed capacity for gas power plants, but the gas for power generation data was also used as a comparison of results from the ENTSO-E market modelling processes.

This data is also important in terms of the high demand situations against which the gas infrastructure is tested. Peak and 2 Week high demand cases are part of TYNDP assessment (details in section Error! Reference source not found.), usually representing 1-in-20 or national design case situations driven by regulation. ENTSO-E models have been run against three climatic years which may not provide the demand levels required.

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