Scenario development methodology

The scenarios describe three storylines for the European gas and electricity systems transition from 2020 until 2040, detailing electrical load and generation along with gas demand and supply, within a framework of EU targets and commodity prices.

The ENTSO-E and ENTSOG jointly developed pathways are also supplemented with an external scenario based on inputs developed by the European Commission for 2030, called the EUCO scenario.

Further information regarding the EUCO 30 scenario can be found on the European Commission’s Energy Modelling website(8). How this data has been used in the scenario building process has been detailed within this report and supporting Annexes, including its translation from one modelling tool to another and assumptions made.

Altogether the scenarios represent the possible evolution of relevant futures for the energy system in Europe, including in terms of policy anticipation which will drive these changes. The selection of the three scenarios, as well as the content in the storylines, is based on input received during the stakeholder consultation process.

All input to the scenario development process, from stakeholder input to underlying policies or actual quantitative parameters, are all assumptions which determine the output of the scenario results driven by the methodologies and tools used. Changes to these assumptions would reflect in different outcomes than those presented in this document.