Demand
Electricity demand
Figure 4: Electricity annual demand by scenario
The highest levels of demand in both the 2030 and 2040 timeframes are in the Distributed Generation scenario. In this scenario, there is very high growth in demand flexibility which accommodates this growthin demand, as the demand curve is easier to manage. The actual growth in demand is due to the very high increase in electric vehicles and heat pumps, although a high percentage of those are hybrid heat pumps which equally aid demand side management.
The Global Climate Action scenario is the second highest in the 2040 timeframe, due to high growth in both electric vehicles and heat pumps. It should be noted that demand levels would be higher if not for the high growth in energy efficiency.
Sustainable Transition has the lowest demand in both the 2030 and 2040 scenario as this scenario still focuses predominately on gas in the heating sector, but also in the power generation and transport sectors.
Figure 5: Increase in numbers of electric vehicles, electric heat pumps and hybrid heat pumps by scenario. *EUCO heat pump numbers have been derived from consumption data and may not represent the same numbers in that scenario.
Electric Vehicles
The growth in electric vehicles is exponential throughout the timeline in all scenario paths. Distribution Generation shows the largest exponential growth compared to the other scenarios as this is a prosumer-based future which assumes high economic growth in society, therefore society has more means to invest in new technology.
The lowest amount of growth is seen in the Sustainable Transition scenario in both 2030 and 2040, as this is the scenario with moderate economic growth and with gas prices at their lowest; there is a higher development of gas vehicles
Heat Pumps
The chart shows significant growth in heat pumps in the EUCO 30 scenario and the Global Climate Action 2040 scenario. The growth is due to electrification of the heating sector as part of an effort to decarbonise.
Hybrid Heat Pumps
The chart shows significant growth in hybrid heat pumps in the Distributed Generation and the Global Climate Action scenarios due to the same prosumer society and economic growth driving the increase in electric vehicles.
Gas Demand
Yearly average annual gas demand
Figure 6: Total annual gas demand by scenario
Annual gas demand in all of the scenarios is either in line with or lower than the historic demand average (2010 – 2016).
Where coal is before gas in the merit order for 2020 and 2025 CBG, the resulting impact on gas demand for power generation is a key factor in the annual demand. The reversed merit order shows the potential swing, something reflected in the upturn in gas for power generation during winter 2016/17. The merit order also has a small effect on the industrial demand where some fuel switching may occur. Increases seen in the transport sector largely balance a reduction in the residential and commercial sectors.
Sustainable Transition continues the trends seen between 2020 and 2025 throughout the time horizons, with efficiency measures and
lower growth in new technologies resulting in a marginally declining industrial and residential and commercial demand. Gas in the transport sector continues to grow and demand for power generation is maintained.
Distributed Generation and Global Climate Action see a heavier decline in space heating demand due to the increase in heat pump technology, although with a higher percentage of hybrid heat pumps in Distributed Generation the impact is lessened. Power generation demand reduces significantly in both as gas power plants are more often used to balance the electricity systems dominated by renewable technology. Industrial demand observes the least change as economic growth means requirements for high heat processes, although these will become more efficient.
High gas demand cases – Peak day and 2 week
Figure 7: Total gas demand in high demand cases (Peak Day and 2-Week cold case)
The high demand cases displayed by the 2 week and peak5 requirements reflect the changing nature of residential and commercial demand seen in the annual timeframe, as space heating typically drives peak gas consumption. As a result, final demand 2 week and peak values drop furthest in Global Climate Action due to the increase in electrical heat pumps and overall efficiency measures. Hybrid heat pumps in Distributed Generation still use the gas system to cope with peak demands driven by cold temperatures. Sustainable Transition observes the least change as consumers have invested in more traditional technology, although this is more efficient.
Gas for power generation is also a significant high demand case element across all scenarios, where even in scenarios that see high levels of storage or demand side response back up to high levels of intermittent renewables is a vital role for flexible gas plants.